For some strange reason I keep posting about stuff and then it’s in the news the next day (not my post, the subject).
So speaking of that 11th pick the Mets have, here’s what Sandy Alderson had to say about it courtesy of Andy McCullough of the Star-Ledger.
“We don’t want to lose our first-round draft pick,” Sandy Alderson said by phone last night, according to McCullough. “We think that’s one of the ways we got into the predicament we’ve had over the past couple of years.”
Nice swipe at Omar Minaya, by the big cheese.
Now if only he could give us four winning seasons in six, then you can color me impressed. We’ll find out this season…
But if you’re the betting type, the odds on the Mets breaking their four year losing streak are not great (disclaimer: betting online in the US is still something of a grey area)
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Dave Cameron of FanGraphs had an interesting post last week in which he discussed the value of draft picks. Considering how much emphasis our front office, and many in the fan base, now place on draft picks, it certainly piqued my interest.
About half way through his extensive and well-reserached post (all of Cameron’s posts are extremely well researched) he gave an example of all the 11th overall picks in the draft since 2000. Coincidentally, that’s exactly where the Mets select in this June’s First Year Player Draft. Check out what
Just as an example, let’s take the 11th pick in the draft since the turn of the century. This is the best possible pick that can be surrendered as compensation for signing a free agent. From 2000 to 2012, those picks have been:
2000: Dave Krynzel
2001: Kenny Baugh
2002: Jeremy Hermida
2003: Michael Aubrey
2004: Neil Walker
2005: Andrew McCutchen
2006: Max Scherzer
2007: Phillippe Aumont
2008: Justin Smoak
2009: Tyler Matzek
2010: Deck McGuire
2011: George Springer
2012: Addison Russell
McCutchen is a huge score for the Pirates, and Walker has turned out nicely for them as well, even though he took a while to become a useful player. Scherzer is another win for this slot. Addison Russell had a great debut and has prospecters excited, so he’s probably got a decent amount of trade value at the moment. George Springer might turn into something, maybe. But after that? Justin Smoak hasn’t developed as expected. Tyler Matzek is still trying to figure things out in A-ball. Phillippe Aumont might have a future as a bulpen guy. Yeah, try to contain your enthusiasm.
A one-in-ten shot at getting the next Andrew McCutchen is an asset worth having, especially if some of the consolation prizes are pretty decent too. But, let’s keep in mind that the changes to the draft rules haven’t changed the fact that teams are still drafting kids who aren’t anywhere close to the big leagues, and the path from draft pick to productive big leaguer is long and treacherous. Having draft picks is a good thing. Teams should value them. But they should know what that value is, and be willing to trade it in for an established Major League player when the price is right.
McCutchen is the only name that jumps out at you. So 1-in-13 players reached a star level of performance. There’s a chance you have 2-3 good MLB careers in there too, but…
This is why I always say, a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush when it comes to trading prospects. The sure thing you trade for almost always ends up having more value than what you gave up. You can’t deny that.
How did Minnesota make out with all those prospects they got from us for Johan Santana when we “so-called” gutted our system?
Am I saying draft picks and prospects are not worth having? Absolutely not. But try to place the value of those things in it’s proper perspective.
Also, try to do your due diligence with scouting before the draft, take the best sure fire player on the board, and then SIGN them… Especially a first or second round pick… (Looking at you DePo)
So if you’re holding off on signing Bourn just because it will cost you the No. 11 pick, lets get real here. Now if you think Bourn doesn’t help the Mets, that’s another story.